Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Using Behavior Models And

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Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Using Behavior Models and

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Methodologies and Applications (ABMTrans 2018) macroscopic simulation models for evacuation modeling. Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Using Behavior Models and Scenario-Driven Agent-based Simulations Yuan Zhua*, Kun Xieb**, Kaan Ozbaya, Hong Yangc aNew York University C2SMART Center (A Tier USDOT UTC), 6 Metrotech Center, Brooklyn, NY, 11201, USA

1. 13
Publish Year: 2018
Author: Yuan Zhu, Kun Xie, Kaan Ozbay, Hong Yang

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"Hurricane Evacuation Modeling Using Behavior Models and

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Transportation modeling and simulation play an important role in the planning and management of emergency evacuation. It is often indispensable for the preparedness and timely response to extreme events occurring in highly populated areas. Reliable and robust agent-based evacuation models are of great importance to support evacuation decision making.

1. 13
Publish Year: 2018
Author: Yuan Zhu, Kun Xie, Kaan Ozbay, Hong Yang

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(PDF) Modeling Evacuation Behavior Under Hurricane …

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Gudisha la and Wilmot (14) used a 11 sequential logit model for estimating evacuat ion behavior. The model was trained using a real evacuation 12 data and then hypotheti cal scenarios were estim

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 See Also: Modeling Evacuation Behavior Under Hurricane Conditions

An Analysis of Evacuation Behavior During Hurricane Ike

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have been principal focus of some previous researches related to hurricane evacuation behavior. This research presents two sets of decision-making models for analyzing hurricane evacuation behavior, using two statistical methods: standard logistic model and mixed logistic model. The receipt of evacuation order, elevation, expenditure, the

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 See Also: Behavioral Model To Understand Household

(PDF) A destination choice model for hurricane evacuation

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A disaggregate destination choice model for hurricane evacuation was developed with post hurricane Floyd survey data collected in South Carolina in 1999. Because destination choice is a choice

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Household-Level Model for Hurricane Evacuation …

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Public agencies must understand household behavior to develop evacuation plans that align with evacuee choices and behavior. This paper presents a previously unknown household-level hurricane evacuation destination type choice model. The discrete choice of destination type is modeled using a nested logit model.

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Enhancing demographic coverage of hurricane evacuation

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Enhancing demographic coverage of hurricane evacuation behavior modeling using social media. Author there is a spike in the activity of users on social media, where they document the real-time, geo In this paper we aim to enhance the demographic coverage of the hurricane evacuation models developed based on traditional surveys by

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New Report Investigates Hurricane Evacuation Behavior - SDMI

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New Report Investigates Hurricane Evacuation Behavior. (FEMA) on evacuation behavior in the region. The study examined the impacts of these events on the region, and the planning implications for future evacuation-related events, with the goal of providing state and local officials better data on expected behavior to assist in preparing for

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 See Also: A Review Of Building Evacuation Models

 See Also: An Integrated Approach To Modeling Evacuation

"An Analysis of Evacuation Behavior During Hurricane Ike

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This research presents two sets of decision-making models for analyzing hurricane evacuation behavior, using two statistical methods: standard logistic model and mixed logistic model.The receipt of evacuation order, elevation, expenditure, the presence of children and elderly people, ownership of a house, and receipt of hurricane warning are

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Modeling and simulation of large crowd evacuation in

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behavior, route choice, user availability, and validation procedure (Kuligowski et al. 2010). Gwynne et al. (1999) reviewed 22 evacuation models and categorized them into three modeling principles. Optimization models consider occupant’s optimal path to exit without considering their

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NATIONAL HURRICANE PROGRAM

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response plans, training programs, and Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES). The purpose of this document is to present experience, best practices, and lessons learned from federal, state, and local emergency managers applied to a decision-making structure that emergency managers may reference, or use to develop pre-impact planning

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A Review of Building Evacuation Models: 2nd Edition

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These models can range from an efficient use of the hand calculations (thus having the same limitations as the hand calculations) to models that have complex equations and occupants with decision-making capabilities. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive model review of 26 evacuation models for current and potential model users.

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A Destination Choice Model for Hurricane Evacuation

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In evacuation modeling, TAZs can be large areas, thereby limiting the number of TAZs and making destination choice by disaggregate modeling feasible again. The objective of the study is to test whether discrete choice models can successfully reproduce evacuation destination choice observed in evacuation behavior from Hurricane Floyd.

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Understanding Evacuee Behavior: A Case Study of Hurricane

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Areas impacted by Hurricane Irma were targeted for survey distribution. The survey also makes notable contributions by including questions related to reentry, a highly under-studied aspect of evacuations. To determine both evacuee and non-evacuee behavior, we analyze the survey data using descriptive statistics and discrete choice models.

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An Agent-based Travel Demand Model System for Hurricane

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An Agent-based Travel Demand Model System for Hurricane Evacuation Simulation Weihao Yin ABSTRACT This dissertation investigates the evacuees’ behavior under hurricane evacuation conditions and develops an agent-based travel demand model system for hurricane evacuation simulation using these behavioral findings.

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Prepare Your Organization for a Hurricane - Playbook

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based predictions that are intended to provide adequate time for evacuation. For more information on these terms and the impact associated with them, consult the . How to Prepare for a Hurricane. guide. • HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM WATCH: The NWS issues a Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch when a hurricane or tropical storm is within 48 hours.

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Hurricane Preparedness Documents - Ready.gov

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Download hurricane preparedness documents, such as a playbook, information sheet, business toolkit, and financial first aid kit from FEMA's Ready campaign.

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PARTICLE DYNAMICS MODEL FOR HURRICANE EVACUATION …

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Particle Dynamics Model for Hurricane Evacuation and Fuel Shortage 4 . and was the main cause of public outcry. Sprague [15], studied the use of complex contagion models compared to “simple” contagion models to examine behavioral ‘fads’ in social media. These studies suggest that epidemiological models are quite successful in not only

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Building a Robust Hurricane Evacuation Model for Florida

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The model also produces estimates for public shelter demand, helping state planners understand where the most vulnerable populations will be during major storms. Between hurricane seasons, emergency managers can update their modeling scenarios to incorporate land use or population changes.

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Modeling the Dynamics of Household-level Hurricane

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This document has been made available through Purdue e-Pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact [email protected] for additional information. Recommended Citation Sarwar, Md. Tawfiq, "Modeling the Dynamics of Household-level Hurricane Evacuation Timing Decisions" (2013).Open Access Theses. 68.

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Modeling evacuation demand during no-notice emergency

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The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information

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Fleeing from Hurricane Irma: Empirical Analysis of

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choice model for evacuation behavior; and 3) advancing a latent class choice model using revealed-preference hurricane evacuation behavioral data. We use these models to infer new behavioral insights from our data, which can be leveraged by practitioners to improve preparedness and response strategies for large-scale evacuations.

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Modeling Hurricane Evacuation Decisions with Ethnographic

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The resulting model of hurricane evacuation decision processes was then tested with interview data collected from a separate random sample of 954 South Florida residents drawn from areas that were evacuation zones and areas immediately adjacent to them at the time of Hurricane Andrew. The model captures the complexity and messiness of real-life

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A-10 Baker - Hurricane Evacuation Behavior

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factors: hurricane experience, hurricane awareness. length of residence in area, past evacuation behavior. and demographics (age. income. educa- lion, family status). Risk Area Low-lying sites exposed to open water are mote dangerous than sites at higher elevations even a few city blocks inland and protected by barriers.

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Particle Dynamics Model for Hurricane Evacuation and Fuel

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Particle Dynamics Model for Hurricane Evacuation and Fuel Shortage: Model Based Policy Analysis The authors use the data accumulated by Gasbuddy, a free crowd sourced data application, and employ parameter identification technique to optimally estimate various characteristics exhibited by a contagion. The authors find that there is

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Understanding Evacuee Behavior: A Case Study of Hurricane Irma

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Areas impacted by Hurricane Irma were targeted for survey distribution. The survey also makes notable contributions by including questions related to reentry, a highly under-studied aspect of evacuations. To determine both evacuee and non-evacuee behavior, we analyze the survey data using descriptive statistics and discrete choice models.

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An Agent-Based Model for Addressing the Impact of a

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Using an agent-based modeling platform, HAZEL, we simulated the Rockaways population, its evacuation behavior, and primary care providers’ availability in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Data sources for this model included post-storm and community health surveys from New York City, a survey of the Rockaways primary care providers, and

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Hurricane Evacuation Behavioral Assumptions for Connecticut

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document, but the reader should be aware that they are included as "tests" of the general response model's applicability to Connecticut rather than to provide actual figures for evacuation planning. Even for the two sites themselves response in future hurricanes could be considerably different than that observed in Gloria. 1

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(PDF) Emergency relocation: Population response model to

3 hours ago Academia.edu Visit Site

This second evacuation order was ignored by a substantial part of the population.Nevertheless, post-hurricane surveys and hypothetical hurricane behavioral studies are useful to identify important factors that help to predict behavior of households in the event of a hurricane landfall, i.e. the evacuation decision (see for example [7], and [22]).

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Evacuation decision behavior for no-notice emergency

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The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Scientific and Technical Information

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Feature Selection for Ranking of Most Influential

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As a case study, the variables influencing evacuation behavior in the Northern New Jersey Evacuation Survey were ranked and compared for disaster scenarios. To validate the method and to demonstrate how it compared with the traditional methods, logistic regression models were also estimated with the same data set.

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AGENT-BASED MODELING FOR HOUSEHOLD LEVEL …

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Using this evacuation simulation model, we test and analyze different scenarios, and grasp the characteristics and effects of human traffic behaviors during the evacuation. 3 MODEL DESIGN The simulation model is created using the agent-based toolkit, Repast Simphony (North et al. 2007). Our model includes four

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Development of a Large-Scale Traffic Simulation Model for

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It also has the ability to model origin/destination based traffic demand which makes it a strong tool for use in evacuation modeling. VISSIM uses the psycho-physical driver behavior model developed by Wiedemann (3) unlike the constant speeds and deterministic car following models used by other simpler simulation models.

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Modeling the Hurricane Evacuation Response Curve

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A model developed on the Hurricane Floyd data set produced plausible results when it was tested with a series of storm scenarios and different evacuation notice policies. The same model predicted evacuation response behavior for Hurricane Andrew that was similar to observed behavior.

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An agent-based modeling system for travel demand

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It explicitly captures the shadow evacuation population. In addition, the model system captures pre-evacuation preparation activities using an activity-based approach. A demonstration study that predicts activity-travel patterns using model parameters estimated for the Miami-Dade area for a hypothetical category-4 hurricane is discussed.

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Multi-hazard hospital evacuation planning during disease

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A common first step in developing an agent-based model is to define what an agent represents in the model. In the context of evacuation modeling, each agent represents an individual; however, different individuals have different behavior in the model. Mainly, there are two types of agents: patients and staff.

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Assessing Crash Risks of Evacuation Traffic: A Simulation

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iii. Calibrating a microscopic traffic simulation model using real-world hurricane evacuation data, which can be utilized to understand driver behavior during evacuations, and iv. Providing experimental evidence of the potential safety impact of advanced driving assistance systems for transportation agencies during a hurricane evacuation.

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Monroe County Hurricane Evacuation Clearance Time Final …

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The Florida Keys Hurricane Evacuation Model, widely known as the Miller Model, is a deterministic model that supplies a specific model output – clearance time – based on such inputs as the number of dwelling units and capacity of roadway links. Miller Consulting developed this hurricane evacuation model in 2000 to measure and analyze the unique

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University of Tennessee, Knoxville TRACE: Tennessee

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Because these trips are not well represented in hurricane evacuation models, the evacuation time estimate may be miscalculated (Wilmot and Mei, 2004). In order to capture pre-evacuation trip behavior, an online survey of residents’ responses to the evacuation order associated with Hurricane Wilma in 2005 was conducted. Survey data

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Computer-Assisted Emergency Evacuation Planning Using

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after, an event has happened. Modeling the transportation system gives operators the ability to discover bottlenecks, to determine the possible benefit of using lane reversals, and to find out the influence of evacuation speed on system efficiency. Models have already been created that are able to model some of these types of disasters with some

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Hurricane Evacuation Models using @RISK - Palisade Webcast

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Henry Yennie will demonstrate how the modeling he did with @RISK to estimate the number of evacuees from New Orleans prior to Gustav turned out to be almost

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